Page 1263 - Week 04 - Wednesday, 25 March 2009
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and it was not going to be good for the ACT. So, if the government can show anywhere in the motion where I blame them for the global financial crisis, I would be interested to see it—because it is just not there.
Ms Burch said we have got a government that delivers infrastructure. Well, does it? Does it deliver infrastructure? The underspend on the infrastructure program in 2002-03 was 37 per cent, 36 per cent in 2003-04, 48 per cent in 2004-05, 48 per cent in 2005-06 and 38 per cent in 2006-07. Indeed, the recent auditor’s report says that the government underspends on infrastructure delivery. They are facts. They are simply facts.
This amendment as put by the former Treasurer is quite interesting. There is one statement of fact: “technical recession”. One could argue over whether it is technical or not, but people out in the community are suffering. The second is that “the global financial crisis has contributed to this situation”. Well, yes, it has. The third is “the positive results of other recent macroeconomic indicators for the ACT, including the labour market, dwelling commencements and housing finance”.
The government used to quote the retail figures. They said: “Look at December. The retail figures bounced. The Rudd stimulus worked.” But it is interesting that the retail figures are not in this, because, as Access Economics in their retail forecast in February this year, said:
Mortgage debt is highest in NSW and the ACT, and that’s Household behaviour has responded sharply to the pressures of 2008 with the return of the conservative consumer. …
This tells us something of how states will fare looking forward. Where debt to income ratios are highest—NSW, VIC and the ACT—retail sales will be commensurate with conservative household spending behaviour until 2011. That is, despite the financial firepower that lower interest rates bring, it is unlikely to be brought to bear before the second half of 2010.
And the report goes on to say that, as chart 9 shows, the ACT is on par with New South Wales and the now struggling WA economy in terms of slowing negative retail growth over the past year. If you look at that chart of the average retail spending for the five years to 2007-08, the ACT was the lowest; it was the lowest of any jurisdiction in this country. And if you look at the expected average for the next five years through to 2012-13 it is the lowest bar one, and that is the cot case economy of the commonwealth, New South Wales. So retail, which is an eye on the economy, which is something that is a predictor, is slowing in the ACT.
Nobody wants that. This is not talking the economy down; this is talking about the facts. I have spoken to retailers, and the Treasurer and the Chief Minister should go and talk to retailers. Restaurateurs are telling me that people are not buying three courses; they are skipping entree or dessert. They are not buying an expensive bottle of wine; they are going to the house wine. The customers are still there but they are spending less.
I have spoken to retailers in Civic. It is very patchy but some of them have said they have had massive downturns on the previous year—and Christmas did not arrive this
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