Page 3802 - Week 12 - Wednesday, 22 November 2006
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cost-effective reductions in emissions and to bring forward action in developing countries. When respected and conservative economists admit that we have a problem, we know we have a problem.
In relation to Australia, the Stern report found that rainfall is likely to continue to decrease as sea temperatures on the major Pacific and Indian Ocean currents rise. The report identified:
In Australia (the world’s driest continent) winter rainfall in the southwest and southeast is likely to decrease significantly, as storm tracks shift polewards and away from the continent itself.
River flows in NSW have been predicted to drop by 15 per cent for a 1-2 degree celsius rise in temperature. Water supply to big cities will become more difficult.
The report warned further:
Warmer winters, reduced snowfall, endanger the habitat of mountain top fauna and flora. Tropical diseases are spreading southward as the north becomes wetter.
A recent study by the Lowy Institute, an independent international policy think-tank based in Sydney, has found that the wider security implications of climate change have been largely ignored and seriously underestimated in public policy, academia and the media. A paper by the Lowy Institute finds that far from exaggerating the impact of climate change it is possible that scientists may have underestimated the threat. The paper found that climate change will complicate and threaten Australia’s security environment in a number of ways.
Weather extremes and greater fluctuations in rainfall and temperatures have the capacity to refashion Australia’s productive landscape and exacerbate food, water and energy scarcities in a relatively short time span. Extreme weather events and climate-related disasters would not only trigger short-term disease spikes but also have more enduring health security consequences since some infectious diseases will become more widespread as the planet heats up. These recent studies strongly reinforce the potential impact of climate change and highlight the real risk we face if we fail to respond adequately or in sufficient time.
It is becoming more and more obvious that the community are well aware of the risks and consequences and want action taken now. A recent poll by the Lowy Institute indicated that nearly 70 per cent of Australians recognise global warming as a serious and pressing problem and want action to be taken even if it involves significant costs. The evidence is such that Rupert Murdoch has recently been converted to the climate change cause and has said that “business and government need to confront it and the Kyoto protocol should be rewritten”. The conversion of Mr Murdoch is a radical shift from his previous scepticism. When a businessman who controls a large and competitive media empires admits that we have a problem, then we have a problem.
The policy challenge for the ACT coming out of this national and international work will be to manage the risks in the face of the uncertainty about how the climate may change at the local level and the effects on infrastructure, design and operation,
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