Page 1069 - Week 04 - Thursday, 21 May 2020
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Questions without notice
Business—COVID-19
MR COE: I have a question for the Chief Minister. What estimates have you received about the number of ACT businesses that will not reopen as COVID restrictions are lifted?
MR BARR: I have not received any formal estimates on that matter, but clearly there will be businesses that will not reopen. In order to extrapolate data, you would need to compare what would be the normal course of business openings and closings—ABNs might provide some basis on which to do that for what would be the normal level of activity—and then assess that against this period. But it would be too early to tell exactly. We do know that a little over 10,000 ACT businesses, as registered by their ABNs, have applied for JobKeeper payments. That would be one in three businesses in the territory, or thereabouts.
MR COE: Chief Minister, have you surveyed or modelled small businesses in Canberra regarding the likelihood of them reopening? If not, is it something that you are planning?
MR BARR: Early in the process of public health directions being enacted, the economic development directorate did undertake some survey work with local businesses. There are also other surveys that are conducted by other reputable organisations for whom information is provided to government, and it is also publicly available. So yes, survey activity has taken place. As to whether it has been as explicit as “Will you not reopen because of COVID-19?”, I do not believe that that direct question has been asked, but it would seem a little premature for some, given that various restrictions are likely to be eased in coming weeks, provided the public health outcomes continue on the trajectory that they are at this point.
MR PARTON: Chief Minister, how many jobs are projected to be lost to the ACT economy?
MR BARR: The estimates vary. Those that have been undertaken by the Reserve Bank and the commonwealth treasury have talked about an unemployment rate of around 10 per cent. That would have been 15 to 20 per cent without the wage subsidy scheme. The ACT’s figures are lower than the national averages or the national expectations, due to the much higher proportion of public sector employment. The initial labour market data shows almost no impact on full-time employment, but a very significant impact on part-time and casual employment, particularly amongst younger people.
The expectations are that the ACT’s unemployment rate will increase. It has gone from 2.9 per cent prior to COVID-19 to 4.2 per cent as measured by the ABS in the most recent data. It would be anticipated to increase again. In terms of total numbers, about 9,500 jobs that were there pre-COVID, when we had a little over 240,000 jobs, were not there in the latest ABS data, which had the total level of employment for the territory at 231,500.
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