Page 2550 - Week 09 - Tuesday, 11 August 2015
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We just don’t know the assumptions that underpinned many of the figures put out in the public domain … We simply don’t have all the data to make judgements.
Despite that, the transport supremo says it warrants the spending of $783 million of other people’s money. Many economists agree that there is real concern about this project. What was supposed to be this government’s validation for the project has left many questions unanswered and has not provided any convincing evidence to support the continuity of the project.
Even then, there is the EIS, which was recently released by the ACT government. The EIS does not bolster the case for light rail. It highlights a number of significant issues with this project, especially during construction but also once operational. Many of these issues have been previously raised by the opposition but have been further quantified, qualified or detailed by the EIS. For instance, we now know what effect light rail will have on vehicles travelling along or intersecting the light rail route. Whilst it was known that buses from Gungahlin to the city would be cancelled, the EIS also speculates that buses from other suburbs in Canberra will be cancelled if light rail becomes operational, forcing passengers to transfer from bus to rail in Gungahlin or Dickson.
Light rail is also less affordable this year. Since last year the budget deficit has grown from $332.8 million to $597.4 million. Even without the Mr Fluffy program, the budget deficit for 2015-16 has increased by $231 million on last year’s estimates. This is despite all the increases to fees, taxes, charges and rates that we have seen right across the board.
Madam Deputy Speaker, it has to be said from a political point of view that the government do not have a strong hand or a strong position for bargaining with the commonwealth when they cry poor regarding Mr Fluffy yet they have a billion dollars to squander on a tram project. It simply does not add up that at the same time as they are crying poor they are willing to lock future generations of Canberrans into a massive liability that will deliver suboptimal and subcurrent transport outcomes.
All in all, the arguments for light rail have been weakened over the last 12 months, not strengthened. As every new piece of information comes to light, as every new announcement or every new piece of the project is scrutinised, the case for light rail is weakened. The costs are higher; the budget position is worse; there are significant question marks over the project’s business case. It almost is beyond comprehension that the government would still press on with this despite the lack of evidence on the table.
Indeed, if this was any other project area, if this was education or health, and they had this sort of damning review of the policy, I am sure they would scuttle the project. However, they do not, because light rail for them is a feel-good policy. It is not a transport solution; it is not an economic solution. We know from the bogus jobs data that it is not an economic solution. The case does not add up. The Centre for International Economics have said:
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