Page 1204 - Week 04 - Wednesday, 7 May 2014
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The case for favouring light rail over bus rapid transit has not been strongly made, especially when the submission itself points to the stronger economic performance of a bus rapid transit option.
If Infrastructure Australia do not think this is viable, why do they think that it will still work? Why do they think that the private sector will back this?
We have heard the government tout the project as being a PPP. If it is a genuine PPP, where the middle P, the private sector, take on the risk, that would be a very interesting project. However, it seems to me that all the risk and the vast majority of the funds will come from the government—that is, the taxpayers. It may well be a PPP in construction, but it will not be a PPP in risk or funding. Regardless of whether the government pays a company or a consortium in cash or in land, one way or another, this is going to cost the ACT many resources.
I do not deny that light rail is the flavour of the month around Australia and in many places around the world. But, as many cities are finding out, not every place is suited to an at-grade tram. Hobart and Perth have had similar projects proposed, but both have been abandoned. Not only did the Perth project not stack up, but it was the ALP opposition in Perth which contributed to the project not getting up. How things are different out west.
I am concerned that there will be minimal demand for light rail against the peak hour traffic flow and during off-peak times. I acknowledge that at peak times there is a fair chance the trams will be full going southbound from Gungahlin and, in the afternoon, northbound to Gungahlin. Between 7.30 and 9 am and between 4.30 and 6 pm I have got no doubt that there will be very high capacity on those trams. However, who is going north to Gungahlin at 8.15 in the morning? And who is going south to the city at 6 pm on a Tuesday night? For the whole project to stack up, the patronage has to be consistent throughout the day. There have to be high patronage levels in both directions throughout the day. I simply do not see how this is going to happen with what they are proposing.
At the Gold Coast, the cost has spiralled out to $1.3 billion for just 13 kilometres. That is $100 million per kilometre at the Gold Coast. In addition to that, the former Labor government said that 50,000 people would ride the tram each day. That has now been revised downwards to 17,000 to 25,000, less than half of what the original projection was. Over there, up in Queensland, it is only just viable as a private sector project. Even then, many are saying that in fact it is not viable as a PPP. And the demographics and population density of the Gold Coast are far more conducive to light rail than they are in the ACT.
The government has advised that 4,500 people will use capital metro to get from Gungahlin to the city each weekday morning. At present, there are more than 3,000 people who use the Northbourne Avenue corridor southbound every morning. So 4,500 people are going to go south on light rail, but at present more than 3,000 are currently using buses. In terms of commuters, we are only looking at an additional 1,500—at most, 1,500. This to spend $614 million!
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