Page 1888 - Week 06 - Thursday, 8 June 2023
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The amendment today to enable the prohibition of new gas connections for certain developments is the next step in the territory’s journey towards our net zero future. Over the next 20 years, the price of fossil fuel gas will continue to increase, so it is in the interests of ACT gas consumers to gradually transition off fossil fuel gas supply. It does not have to happen today or tomorrow, but over the next couple of decades, at the time that is right for them, gas consumers—whether they are households or in the business sector—should be making that transition.
Detailed modelling undertaken in 2021 and early in 2022 has helped us to understand the impact of the different transition options. This includes the impact on gas and electricity consumption, prices and distribution networks. The modelling shows that, based on existing consumer trends and government policy, gas consumption is likely to decrease by 60 per cent by 2045, when there will likely be about a 21 per cent increase in demand for electricity. These findings have helped inform the government’s decision.
Modelling by GHD shows that retail gas prices are expected to increase by around 19 per cent over the period 2022-29, adding approximately $220 to the annual gas bill for the average household by 2029. The overwhelming drivers of gas price increases over this period will be the international price of gas, wholesale costs and, of course, the cost of maintaining and moving gas through the territory’s gas network—the distribution cost.
The ACT government’s decision to phase out the use of fossil fuel gas has been informed by extensive research and analysis, including technical modelling and consumer research. The government’s view is that we need to act now to manage these impacts and to ensure an orderly and equitable transition away from fossil fuel gas supply. Getting this transition right will ensure that Canberrans benefit from cheaper power, cleaner air and a healthier environment. The amendment today to enable the prohibition of new gas connections for certain developments is an important step in this journey.
I want to be clear, though, that the government is also progressing the development of an integrated energy plan. We are also working to identify and engage with groups and business sectors who will need additional support in this transition in the coming decades. We are working to develop and deliver education and engagement programs to encourage consumers to transition to more efficient electric appliances, again at the time that is right for them; assessing the potential for a renewable gas network, including how it may be used for particular situations where solutions other than electrification will be needed; and collaborating with stakeholder groups across the territory, including those in the property development area, gasfitters and Evoenergy, to deliver this net zero transition in a coordinated way.
The integrated energy plan work is critical. This electrification transition requires a coordinated and planned approach to maintain a secure, affordable and reliable energy supply across the ACT. The transition will be guided by the government’s delivery of a new integrated energy plan for the territory by 2024. This plan will set out how the ACT will transition away from fossil fuel gas use over a couple of decades and optimise our energy system, how we will engage and support energy consumers, and how we will establish collaborative partnerships with organisations across
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