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Legislative Assembly for the ACT: 2018 Week 07 Hansard (Wednesday, 1 August 2018) . . Page.. 2517 ..

reductions from the electricity sector will have very little impact; in fact that target will be met very early in the decade, perhaps in 2021 or 2022, when this is a target, out until 2030, which will clearly stall progress in the electricity sector when it comes to transitioning to a clean energy future.

The second one is reliability. It is clear from the design of the mechanism now that the reliability mechanism is unlikely to ever be triggered. This is probably a good thing, but I think that, in terms of the significant national discussion that has gone on, and the calls for more reliability, this is not the issue that it has been claimed to be.

When it comes to certainty, there is no doubt that because of the meagre target that is being set by the federal government under their legislation—the one that they are proposing—the target will be revised as soon as there is a change of government at a federal level. So I think that the claim of certainty is one that is being oversold in this context.

When it comes to costs, with the modelling—which is yet to be publicly released, I might add, and that is of itself a concern—of the $550 that is claimed, only $150 will come from the NEG. This is a question mark as well.

MR PETTERSSON: How would the national energy guarantee impact the renewable energy sector, of which the ACT government has been a great supporter?

MR RATTENBURY: The renewable energy sector has been one of the most vocal critics of the national energy guarantee. They feel it will have a significant detrimental impact on an industry that is rapidly growing and rapidly creating new economic opportunities and new employment opportunities. We have seen the Smart Energy Council perhaps as the most vocal critics but, as people whose members are made up of the wind and solar firms that are making these investments in Australia, they see the impact that this is likely to have because of that stall in investment linked to the lack of ambition in the emissions reduction target.

We are very concerned in the ACT. We now have the advantage of having a number of companies headquartered here in the territory as a result of our early moves on renewable energy. Those are the very companies that are expressing concerns about their own viability because of the impact of the national energy guarantee.

MR STEEL: Minister, would the proposed national energy guarantee slow the growth of progress already made towards a reduction in carbon emissions?

MR RATTENBURY: I thank Mr Steel for the supplementary question. It seems almost certain that it will. As I have touched on, much of the modelling that has been done indicates that the 26 per cent emissions reduction target will be met early in the decade. Therefore there is no motivation and there is a lack of a market signal or any other kind of government policy signal to encourage further innovation and further movement towards the clean energy sector.

I am deeply concerned about the medium-term transition here. Slightly beyond 2030, modelling by the Energy Security Board shows, significant numbers of

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